February 2018
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Eat Your Vegetables

“Risk management is too negative. We’re focused on growing our business.”  – a startup CEO

A certain Captain Smith once entertained the same certainty about large pieces of ice at sea and ignored the potential effect. He was focused on getting to New York, but that focus didn’t help him much when he ran into trouble.

Preparation is [...]

You’ve Assessed Your Risk. Now What?

Riccardo Rebonato questions what we expect to our risk analyses to tell us.

“There is another aspect that current risk-management thinking does not seem to handle in a very satisfactory way: how to go from probabilistic assessments to decisions. Managing risk in general, and managing financial risk in particular, is clearly a case of decision-making under uncertainty… [...]

Your Bank Bought Subprime Loans. How About Greek Bonds?

What might happen can matter more that whether it will happen.

The potential gain from snatching up pennies from in front of a steamroller seems less attractive when you consider the potential loss. Risk management is likewise often more effective if we look at the potential effects of an event than whether or not the event will occur. [...]

The Unbearable Clarity of Hindsight

“You acted unwisely,” I cried, “as you see

By the outcome.” He solemnly eyes me:

“When choosing the course of my action,” said he,

“I had not the outcome to guide me.”

          Ambrose Bierce, quoted in Plight of the Fortune Tellers by [...]

So You Thought The Hiring Process Was Hard…

Why Integrating Your New Foreign Hire Matters

Human resources risk is often overlooked – and if there’s one thing that a risk should never be, it is ignored. In good times, strong profits and strong growth can mask unnecessary, overlooked losses. In bad times, they can mean the difference between profit and loss.

The hiring process is usually [...]

Signs You Should Worry: Staffing

Instinct is not a rule to manage by, but it can be a dangerous thing to ignore. It is a rare project that goes wrong without any warning at all. Seemingly random signs can be easier to understand if you use a template to see how they fit into a pattern.

The project staff usually react when [...]

Daily Telegraph – Germany’s Slump Risks ‘Explosive’ Mood as Second Banking Crisis Looms

It is always worth having more than one scenario on hand when planning for the future. A most probable scenario and a most dangerous scenario are a good start. The data can come from a variety of sources, and it is wise to follow several, preferably with differing views.

Much of the business press is upbeat, but [...]