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Probability vs. Vulnerability

Traditionally, risk is measured by weighing effect and probability. The general view on this is changing. Effect is still measured in terms of how much damage the risk will cause if it occurs, but now probability is being replaced by vulnerability.

Probability is being criticized for only looking backwards, for measuring the odds something bad will happen by counting previous occurrences. The critics claim probability says that if something hasn’t gone wrong yet, then it won’t.

Assessing vulnerability attempts to correct this by measuring the odds that a risk may occur by looking at how exposed you are to a risk. Whether your car doors are locked, they say, matters more than the fact that your car has never been stolen your car before.

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