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Walk The Talk

The unrehearsed contingency is not a contingency

Predicting the unexpected tends to be hard. It may seem obvious, but an absurd number of people think otherwise. Murphy has a thing or two to say on the subject and contingency planners often make a number of dangerous assumptions.

Don’t assume anyone has read the plan

Time is short and most [...]

Predicting vs. Preparing

“Why did nobody notice it?” - Queen Elizabeth to Professor Luis Garicano about the credit crunch, November 2008. 

The question was a bit unfair, perhaps, but it cannot escape notice that same economists and other experts continue to make predictions – often without noting how poor they are at making the right call. Time spent predicting the weather [...]