March 2018
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“You’re Not Getting a New Bike”

Answers to questions you haven’t asked can speak volumes
I live in the middle of Copenhagen, where the best way to get from A to B is on a bike. A few years ago, I bought a new bicycle. A month later I was outside the shop asking the owner why the rear brake had gouged the frame.
“I don’t know”, [...]

Hvilket billede tegner dine risici?

Uddrag fra 3. opdatering 2010 af Børsens Ledelseshåndbog Krise- og risikostyring

Hvordan dine risici udvikler sig er vigtigt – og ofte overset

Det er som bekendt svært at spå om fremtiden, men vi er nødt til at gætte. Forudsigelse har altid været en svær kunst, og det er ofte vanskeligt at anvende resultatet. Som målmand er det én [...]

Overcoming “What if?”

What to do when potential risks are getting in the way of forward progress

Many years ago on a planet far, far away, I worked on a project that was stuck. We had a clear mission and the desired end state could not have been clearer. Our problem was determining the current situation – and the associated [...]

Green Shoots and Dark Clouds

Prediction is a difficult business

The news is full of stories claiming to see the bottom of the recession or the proof of recovery, while others claim the worst is yet to come. Choosing between hoping for the best and preparing for the worst is hard – and delay is not an option for everyone.

There is an [...]

Case – “Unpredicted, Yes. Unexpected, No.”

Communicating bad news is hard and it pays to do it well. There are some who argue that you cannot judge a manager or a firm by what they do when times are good, but only by how they manage when times are bad.

Many of the managers that were good at getting flattering profiles in the [...]

Risk Containment Tool: PACE-Planning

Risk Containment Tool: PACE Planning

Contingency planning is deceptively simple. Everyone knows it’s important to have a Plan B, but all too often people forget to plan for an outcome than the one they expect. Preparing Plan B is a standard part of the military planning process and one of their contingency planning tools goes by the [...]

Kaplan and Norton: Ignoring Risk Is Not An Option

Kaplan and Norton correctly assert that management all too frequently ignores risk as a factor in managing their firms. They explain that part of the reason for this failure is the lack of good measurement tools to quantify “rare, or black swan, events”, but this is no excuse. The inability to quantify these risks does [...]